Saturday, April 18, 2009

Bully Bean

I just finished reading Moneyball...Ok Ok I know, the book is ancient. But reading it 6 years after it was written allows for a different perspective. For one, I can look back at all their decisions and obsessions over certain guys and see whether or not they paid off. Nick Swisher, Chad Bradford, Jeremy Browne and many others are plastered all over the pages of the book and no doubt a few of them are in the midst of decent Pro careers, but on the other hand...some are not.

My observation led me to conclude that there does indeed appear to be something to be said about many of the philosophies brought up by sabermetric gurus like Bill James and Paul Dipotesta, but at the same time, certain philosophies Billie Bean preaches have not (6 years later) done much in the way of handing the A's any real success since the Bash Brother years.

And how much is too much really? I mean, at what point does analyzing numbers to their most miniscule details becomes a bit reduntant. No one, not even me, a guy that for a living, analyzing market trends and goes to great lengths to understand the psychological mindframe of a shopper shopping for Granola Bars in a grocery store, want to see the game broken down to just a set of numbers.

Certain theories and rules have their place and make a lot of sence, but these things need to be directional only. It was comical reading about Bille Bean raising his arms in triumph as the Mets and Devil Rays wasted their picks taking high schoolers named Scott Kazmir and BJ Upton and the Brewers taking a guy too fat for even Oakland to consider in Prince Fielder as the A's came that much closer to claiming their prize possession in Nick Swisher. I couldn't help but laugh at the irony of reading about a no run philosophy from the team that produced Ricky Henderson and didn't understand why despite their philosphies, free swingers like Miguel Tejada and Eric Chavez were leading the team in offense. I did however gain a lot of respect for Scott Hatteburg if that counts for anything.

Don't get me wrong...I am agree 100% with the importance of OBP and other stats aimed at stripping out the crap that distorts baseball statistics...it just appeared to me that most of Billie Bean's success had to do with how he interacted with other GM's and basically bullied them into getting what he wanted rather than drafting On-Base machines. When Bille Beans wants a guy it appears that he goes to great lengths including manipulation and a string of white lies to get him. If other GM's had Billie's balls, perhaps the A's would not have become so successful.

Overall, I loved the book and will try to learn from it and apply some learning to my own baseball career and approach to hitting, but it's important to keep in mind that sabmermetrics in the end, can only really be directional. There is no telling exactly what guys are going to do when they make it to the bigs and as many great picks the A's have made, there are probably more bad ones. Oh yeah and if you ever get a call from Billie Bean, just remember that it's ok to say no.

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Tanking Gets you Nowhere

With just a handful of games left in the NHL and NBA, poolies might consider tanking to get the first overall pick in your 2009 draft. If you're thinking Blake Griffin or John Tavares will catapult you into contention next year think again. Rookies like Lebron James, Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin who come in and make a significant fantasy impact are very rare. What's lost towards the end of all fantasy season's is, it takes a team not an individual to make a successful team, what good Adrian Peterson if your QB is Brody Croyle? Anyone can tank but it takes a really skilled GM to identify when his team won't win and make good trades to get into contention next year. So think about this before you start Jamal Mayers over Simon Gagne.

Phillies Love Blanton

The Phillies Trade for Blanton shows more about the "Win/Loss" stat for a pitcher than anyone in modern history. Blanton was 4-0 last year with the Phillies, but on my fantasy team, provided me a total of bupkis in terms of weekly points. Other than the dominant performance in the playoffs - aided by something on his cap - he has been nothing more than extremely lucky to have his "winning streak" in tact up to this point for the Phils.
Take for instance today's performance.
4 Innings 9 Hits 7 EARNED RUNS!

Trailing 7-3, his team goes down 10 - 3, only to see them score 8 in the bottom of the 7th to take an 11-10 lead, therefore closing the book on Blanton leaving his winning streak in tact.

Don't get me wrong, it saved my team -20 points for the loss, but can I really have him in there on a weekly basis without him being a negative points pitcher?!?!?!?!

Scouting the Marlins

Marlins 3rd game just started and we have our first look at Volstad this season

Chris Volstad has some absurd movement on that fastball. Good downward plane and armside run on the heater and it is legit 91-94. I am not a big fan of stadium guns or brodcasted speeds. But the same gun that has Volstad today has Daniel Cabrera at 90-93, so I would say he is throwing well. He has a get me over curve he throws for strikes and then and overhand hammer for the strikeout. His changeup is 85-86 though and that is a little hard but it has a little sink and fade on it.
If he starts to command them better he is going to be the 2nd best pitcher on that staff.

Dont get me started on Josh Johnson, he could win the Cy Young someday.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Knicks Money Making Opportunity

Where will LeBron sign in 2010? New York
Who is on the bench for the Knicks? Jerome James

Get Jerome to change his number to 23

Market the number 23 jersey with "James" on the back! Huge money making opportunity for the Knicks before LeBron even signs there!!!